In a wagering world partially defined by the increasing importance of data and analytics, it can often be difficult for novices to adopt the most successful betting strategies. This is when the skills developed by Maxwell James Sterling become immediately clear.
What does he have to say about the relationship between odds and real-world probabilities? Anyone who hopes to wrap their heads around the finer points should find the information below quite interesting.
Odds and Probabilities: The Basics
We first asked Maxwell James Sterling to provide us with a user-friendly definition of odds.
“No problem at all,” he begins with a characteristic nonchalant flavour. “Odds are simply the likelihood that a particular event will occur at a specific time. Odds determine how much you’ll win if you place a bet on this event.”
He then goes on to highlight how odds tend to be used in research. Odds will often be converted into probabilities through the use of a simple formula. For instance, decimal odds are nothing more than 1 divided by the value of the odds. He was also kind enough to provide an example.
“Let’s imagine that the odds of a certain outcome are two. We’ll divide 1 by 2, and the resulting probability is 50%. This is a great way of supplying raw data with a more tangible edge that can be better understood by wagering enthusiasts.”
Perceived Versus Actual Odds
We then asked Maxwell James Sterling to clarify a factor that has led to a certain amount of confusion throughout the online sports betting community. This involved perceived odds in relation to so-called “actual” odds.
“The difference is actually straightforward. Perceived odds are essentially odds that can be influenced by extraneous variables. These include public sentiment, the latest posts across social media platforms such as TikTok, and recent player performances. Actual odds are numerically based calculations that use statistical analysis and data modelling alone.”
The main takeaway point here is that the discrepancies between these two approaches can be incredibly important.
A bettor who feels that a team might have a better chance of winning than the actual odds suggest could have an edge. This is sometimes referred to as a “value bet”.
When it Comes to Betting, is Brevity the Soul of Wit?
One issue that has plagued the sports wagering community involves the inherent confusion associated with certain online bookmakers. In this respect, Maxwell James Sterling certainly does not hold back when providing us with his personal thoughts.
“It’s almost as if some sportsbooks intentionally make things more complicated than they have to be,” he begins. “I’m not only talking about needless on-site clutter. I’ms instead referring to fixtures and tables that can be extremely difficult to interpret. This often serves to discourage novice wagerers, and it may even lead to costly mistakes.”
He uses his own research database to reinforce this point. While the data itself can be confusing, Maxwell James Sterling always includes a concise summary within an abstract. Otherwise, his efforts would be lost on the average reader.
“I think that online bookmakers need to get back to the basics. Forget about flash images, pop-up advertisements, and similar fluff. Simplicity is the key to success, and this will also help to ensure a loyal customer base.”
The Science of Sports Betting (with a Dash of Artistic Flair)
It is a well-known fact that Maxwell James Sterling has already produced several well-received studies focusing on the analytical side of sports betting, and methods such as Bayesian models. How do these tie in with traditional techniques that can still be quite useful?
“The key here is to develop a balanced approach when it comes to odds and probabilities. I don’t believe in the term ‘one size fits all’. It is important to highlight what works for you, and to discard strategies that serve no real-world value.”
Maxwell James Sterling stresses that the most important first step involves understanding how odds work in relation to the outcome of a specific event.
These can then be used when analysing other factors besides the potential returns alone. This ultimately leads to a more circumspect strategy, and increases the chances that a correct wager will be placed.
“At the end of the day,” Maxwell James Sterling observes with a slightly philosophical mindset, “there’s always the element of chance.
This is what makes sports betting such a fun pastime. Chance cannot be eliminated. The goal is to minimise the risks, and to maximise the potential rewards. After all, there are few certainties in life.”
